Moto3, Portuguese GP: here’s how Arenas, Ogura and Arbolino can score the title

A Spaniard, a Japanese and an Italian. It sounds like the beginning of a joke but these are the three title contenders with just one race to go before Lorenzo Dalla Porta’s successor is named.

Albert Arenas, Ai Ogura and Tony Arbolino are the riders who will battle it out at the Portuguese roller-coaster of a track, Tony’s recent win at Valencia meaning that all three are within 11 points of each other.

Here are the ways each of the three can lift the trophy on Sunday.

Arenas takes the title home to Spain if…

Of the three fighting for the title, the Spaniard is the most expert and already has half a hand on the trophy. But Albert will have to sweat for every point at Portimao if he wants to help Aspar secure the Moto3 title on the back of its CEV Junior win with Izan Guevara.

Albert is champion on Sunday if… 

He wins or finishes second

He finishes 3rd and Ogura doesn’t win

He finishes 4th and neither Ogura or Arbolino win

He finishes 5th, 6th or 7th, Ogura does no better than third and Arbolino doesn’t win

He finishes 8th, Ogura and Arbolino do no better than 3rd

He finishes 9th, 10th or 11th and Ogura doesn’t reach the podium and Arbolino does no better than 3rd

He finishes 12th or 13th, Ogura does no better than 5th and Arbolino doesn’t reach the podium

He finishes 14th, Ogura does no better than 6th and Arbolino doesn’t reach the podium

He finishes 15th, Ogura does no better than 7th and Arbolino no better than 5th

He scores no points, Ogura does no better than 8th and Arbolino no better than 5th

Ogura: for Japan to return to winning ways

Ogura will also move up to Moto2 next year and is still in with a chance of the title, thanks largely to Arenas rather than to his own results. At certain points of the season, particularly between Barcelona and the Aragon double-header, he appeared to ‘vanish’ for no good reason but he has continued to retain second position and an eighth-place finish at Valencia means the fight is still on, despite the Japanese rider having won not a single race. Japan hasn’t tasted success in the cadet class since 1998, with Kazuto Sakata, and Ogura would love to buck this trend

Ogura will be crowned champion if…

He wins and Arenas does no better than 3rd

He finishes 2nd, Arenas does no better than 5th and Arbolino doesn’t win

He finishes 3rd, Arenas does no better than 9th and Arbolino doesn’t finish ahead of him

He finishes 4th, Arenas does no better than 12th and Arbolino doesn’t reach the podium

He finishes 5th, Arenas does no better than 14th and Arbolino does no better than 4th

He finishes 6th, Arenas does no better than 15th and Arbolino does no better than 5th

Arbolino: a man on a mission

Last but not least, Italian Tony who trains with Jorge Lorenzo. His win at Valencia has relaunched his title bid, a bid that appeared compromised just a few rounds ago. Now only 11 points separate the Italian from Arenas and the desire to move up to Moto2 as world champion, as Dalla Porta did this year, is immense. And keeping the title in Italy would be great too.

Arbolino is champion if…

He wins and Arenas does no better than 4th

He finishes 2nd, Arenas does no better than 8th and Ogura does no better than 3rd

He finishes 3rd, Arenas does no better than 12th and Ogura does no better than 5th

He finishes 4th, Arenas finishes 15th or worse, and Ogura does no better than 7th

Translated by Heather Watson

Coach Poggiali and his tips for winning a championship: “Consistency is key”