MotoGP: the 2021 stat that won't please Pecco Bagnaia

MotoGP: the 2021 stat that won't please Pecco Bagnaia© Luca Gorini

Four straight wins at the end of last season seems like the ideal pathway into 2022, and yet history tells us otherwise. Those who have been championship runner-up with four wins in the last six races have never won the world title

15.02.2022 ( Aggiornata il 15.02.2022 12:14 )

The first step is half the journey wrote Roman poet Quinto Orazio Flacco. And the last step? This came to mind as we considered Pecco Bagnaia’s four wins in the last six MotoGP races of last season. An unexpected feat, in that the Italian had never reached the top step of the podium in his first 41 races in the reigning class. But after triumphing at Aragón, following a brilliant duel with Marc Marquez, the Ducati rider appeared to gain new awareness.

Pecco and the end of last season


First he did the double at Aragón and San Marino and then, after a third place finish at Austin and a mistake at Misano 2, he was back to winning ways at the Algarve and Valencia rounds. In light of those results, there are those who clearly believe number 63 has serious shot at the title this year. While others think that his winning streak is to be taken with a pinch of salt considering that, up until the time of Pecco’s first win, Fabio Quartararo held a 65-point lead over his closest rival, Joan Mir, and was lying 70 points ahead of the first factory Desmosedici, that of Pecco. We also note the fact that, in the last two races GP, the Frenchman had less reason to fight, having already secured the world title, while Marquez was unable to race due to diplopia.

With no crystal ball to predict the future, we can only look to the past, analysing all those occasions in which a rider has won four of the last six GP races. First though, we remind you of those who did one better, starting with a trio who rounded out the year in real style, winning all six of the last six races. A feat achieved by John Surtees in 1959, Mike Hailwood in 1963 and Giacomo Agostini in 1968, all aboard an MV Agusta. Thanks also to these wins, all three secured the world title, going on to do the same again the following year, with the same Italian bike.

On eight occasions, a rider has won five of the last six races. The latest to do so was Marc Marquez in 2019, while he finished second in the remaining Malysian round, behind Maverick Viñales. Before him there was Valentino Rossi with in 2001 and 2003 and Mick Doohan in 1998, both with Honda. Then Agostini in both 1970 and 1972, aboard the MV, and, lastly, Geoff Duke with the Gilera in 1954  followed, four years later, by Surtees with the MV. All eight were crowned champions, but only five successfully defended those titles, including the Doctor, who was the only one to switch manufacturer (champion with Yamaha in 2004). The exceptions were Ago, third in 1973, and the riders who suffered serious incidents at turn 3 of the Jerez track – in 1999 Doohan was forced to retire, while Marquez had to miss the remainder of the 2022 season due to problems with his humerus and three subsequent surgeries.

Illustrious predecents


Bagnaia is the nineteenth rider to win “just” four of the last six races. The first nine to do so became world champions come the end of their respective seasons. This was the case for Duke (Norton) in 1951, then Libero Liberati (Gilera) in 1957, Surtees with the MV (1960), Gary Hocking (1961), Mike the Bike (1962, 1964 and 1965), Agostini (1969), and Marco Lucchinelli with the Suzuki in 1981. Four wins was not enough to secure Kenny Roberts the title in 1983 though, with Spencer ultimately triumphing and finishing the season just two points ahead.

More riders who lifted the trophy on the back of four wins in the final six races include Fast Freddie in 1985, Doohan (1997), Rossi (2004 and 2008), Casey Stoner (2011) and Marquez (2018). Other exceptions, in addition to Roberts, are Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo. In 2012, with six races to go, the HRC rider was lying second, thirteen points behind Lorenzo. Dani won four but also suffered two ‘zeros’, which ultimately afforded Lorenzo the title win. The following year, Lorenzo was third, 39 points from Marc Marquez. With four wins and two further podiums, he was able to move ahead of Pedrosa but finished four points behind world champion Marquez.

In good company


Pecco is only the fourth rider in the reigning class to finish as runner-up after winning four of the last six races. But this didn’t bode well for his predecessors, none of whom were able to repeat even second place the following season. Roberts didn’t even try and, tired of travelling around Europe, the American stuck to his word and retired to spend more time with his children. Pedrosa, in 2013, and Lorenzo, nel 2014, both finished the year in third place, behind not only Marquez but also Jorge in the case of Pedrosa, and Rossi in the case of Lorenzo.

If we consider the other fifteen cases, only seven riders won the title the year after scoring four wins: Hailwood in 1963 and 1965, Agostini in 1970, Doohan in 1998, Rossi in 2005 and 2009 and Marquez in 2019. The only man to finish second was the Brit in 1966, when he moved to Honda. Casey Stoner finished third in 2012, owing also to the fact that he missed three rounds through injury. Of note was Lucchinelli’s eighth place finish in 1982, after leaving Suzuki and Team Gallina for the factory Honda team, and Spencer’s suffering in 1986, the rider forced to sit out several rounds due to carpal tunnel syndrome, among other things.

Translated by Heather Watson

MotoGP, Tardozzi: “We need to keep Bagnaia in the family, we’ll find a way”

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