French GP predictions: Le Mans race and sprint analysis

The Jerez GP saw Pecco Bagnaia redeem himself with a practically perfect weekend, the Italian placing second in the Sprint Race after battling eventual winner Brad Binder and winning the main race, again up against the South African. The world champion, who won the Moto2 race in France in 2018, sees his share price soar thanks to a technical and mental maturity that allowed him to manage the Spanish race coolly and calmly, and attack at just the right moment.

Eight-time world champion Marc Marquez will be back in France. Having missed three of four races held so far, he has now received the OK from doctors after fracturing his right hand. KTM riders Brad Binder and Jack Miller are also ones to watch, the pair having made an impression at Jerez in both the Sprint Race and long race. We also expect to see more from certain riders who didn’t stand out at Jerez, Yamaha men Fabio Quartararo and Franco Morbidelli for example. The Frenchman will be racing at home at Le Mans, but he’s dealing with an M1 that is not exactly helping him and with an internal climate that is feeling the effects of this.

Pecco Bagnaia the favourite over Marc Marquez for the Sprint Race

For Bagnaia, winning at Jerez and moving back into the championship lead has restored not only the desired level of performance but also the peace of mind that the two crashes in Argentina and America had taken away. Up until now Bagnaia has always been the favourite for the Sprint Race, and the Le Mans GP is no exception, the Italian having quoted odds of 3.00. Although Marc Marquez hasn’t been on track yet, his return comes with a certain degree of expectation, the Honda rider with quoted odds of 5.00, right behind Pecco Bagnaia.

Despite hitting the wrong notes in the last two races, Marco Bezzecchi is still one of the likely contenders for the short race, with quoted odds of 7.00. The features of the French track could be a disadvantage for KTM, unlike Jerez, and this is why the winner of the last sprint, Brad Binder, must ‘settle’ for odds of 9.00. Alex Marquez is there with the South African, while Jorge Martin’s odds drop to 11.00 this time. The Aprilias are in need of a comeback after a less than shining start to the season, with odds of 13.00 for Aleix Espargaró and 16.00 for Maverick Vinales. Local hero Fabio Quartararo is at 11.00, the Frenchman likely in for a tough weekend, technically speaking.

Our prediction: Bagnaia can do it again in the Sprint, Marquez an unknown

At a track where he scored his first career podium in 2015, in Moto3, Bagnaia has the potential to repeat his recent Spanish Sprint performance again at Le Mans. To date, the Italian has been the most consistent rider across both the weekend’s races and this could well be the case again at Le Mans, particularly coming on the back of a win that has done a lot to restore confidence levels. But look out for the two Aprilias of Aleix Espargaró and Maverick Vinales, who may well be able to demonstrate the potential shown during winter testing now that they are at Le Mans. And expectations are also high for Marco Bezzecchi, who has slumped a little since winning in Argentina, and for Luca Marini, a rider who has demonstrated consistent growth until now.

The biggest unknown heading into the weekend is Marc Marquez and his competitiveness aboard the Honda, a crucial factor that has to do with both his physical condition and his feeling with a bike that is limping. The Spaniard’s explosiveness could pay off, particularly in the sprint race, while the limited number of laps could also help the eight-time champion from a physical standpoint. Lastly, all eyes will also be on Danilo Petrucci, riding the Ducati in place of Enea Bastianini at a track at which he triumphed in 2018.